What is the Cynefin Framework? (after Wikipedia)
The Cynefin framework is a conceptual framework used to aid decision-making.
Developed in 1999 by Dave Snowden when he worked for IBM Global Services, it has been described as a “sense-making device”.
Cynefin is a Welsh word for habitat.
Cynefin offers five decision-making contexts or “domains”
- Obvious (‘Simple’ until 2014)
- Complicated
- Complex
- Chaotic
- Disorder
These help managers identify situations and make sense of their own and other people’s behaviour.
The framework draws on research into systems theory, complexity theory, network theory and learning theories.
Obvious
Sense - Categorise - Respond
- Rigid constraints
- High risk of catastrophic failure (?)
- Only effective where there is a consistently high degree of success
- If the system is too rigid, people will find workarounds
- Workarounds teach people to ignore rules
Complicated
Sense - Analyse - Respond
- Experts may know the correct response
- See - Attend - Act
- Seeing the data may not lead to action
- Good practice not best practice as variation is allowed
- Discretion to change response, where experience assured
Complex
Exaptive* practice (*a process in which a feature acquires a function that was not acquired through natural selection*)
- Scale complex system by decomposition and recombination
- Rapidly repurpose things you are good at to solve problems
- Build capability to adapt to unknown situations that may occur in the future
- Test for coherence - what might be causing it?
- Probe in parallel
- Create safe to fail experiments that look at 2 competing hypotheses
- Short experiments - 2-3 months
Success
Application of constraints produces repeatable results
Move to “good practice”
Test frequently to ensure still successful, if not move back
If successful for long periods, move to “best practice”
Complexity is about understanding disposition states. Disposition changes can cause massive changes in the system.
These help managers identify how they perceive situations and make sense of their own and other people’s behaviour.
The framework draws on research into systems theory, complexity theory, network theory and learning theories.
Chaos was not addressed in this session
Other
- Complexity is about understanding disposition states. Disposition changes can cause massive changes in the system.
- Observer - Orientate - Decide - Act
- If you can move through the cycle quicker than an opponent you will win - e.g., London Taxi vs. Uber
- Taxi will always beat the Uber, but it takes a number of years to get the experience rather than learning to read a map
- Types of reasoning
- Deductive - A then B
- Inductive - All cases of A have B
- Abductive - “logic of hunches”